3rd wave possible if vaccination not ramped up: Scientist

3rd wave possible if vaccination not ramped up: Scientist
NEW DELHI: If coronavirus vaccination is not stepped up and proper Covid-19 behavior is not maintained, there is a possibility of a third wave of the pandemic in 6-8 months, said M Vidyasagar, a scientist involved at the Sutra model that uses math to project the Covid-19 trajectory.
However, he stressed that the Sutra model has not predicted a third wave and is working on it.
The professor from the Indian Institutes of Technology-Hyderabad quoted an article by Italian researchers about infected people with declining antibodies, which provide a kind of immunity, in six months.
“If the antibodies are lost, there is a chance that immunity will wane. In this case, vaccination should be increased and Covid-19 appropriate behavior practiced. If not, there is a possibility of a third wave in 6-8 months, ”said Vidyasagar.
"We are also adding immunity and vaccination aspects to our model for our future predictions," he added.
According to a study at San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, antibodies against coronavirus remained in the blood of patients with Covid-19 for at least eight months after they became infected.
A recent sero-study by the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB) suggested that the neutralizing antibodies decreased significantly after five to six months, making people more susceptible to reinfections.
Coronavirus cases in the country peaked in September 2020 and as of October there was a nationwide decline in the number of new cases.
“By taking more stringent measures (greater than 30 percent inhibition of surrogate receptor peak protein binding), the loss of neutralization may be even greater.
"We speculate that this may be related to a recurrence of outbreaks in March 2021, after the peak in September 2020," said the IGIB newspaper of the second wave that started to rage from the end of March and has since claimed thousands of lives.
K Vijay Raghavan, Principal Scientific Adviser, had said on May 5 that as the virus continues to mutate, a third wave of COVID infection is inevitable and it is necessary to be prepared for new waves.
Two days later, he said there may not be a third wave of coronavirus in the country, if strong measures are taken and implemented effectively at the state, district and city levels.
“If we take strong action, the third wave may not happen everywhere or nowhere at all. It depends on how effectively the guidance is implemented at the local level in the states, districts and cities everywhere.
"The guidelines on precautions, on surveillance, on containment, on treatment and on testing. This insidious asymptomatic transmission can be stopped if we follow the guidelines. This sounds difficult, it is difficult and we can and should do it," said VijayRagahvan. in a press conference.

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